Recession or no recession. Harmless or ruinous. Next year or 5 years. Who knows but keep in mind a few important trends. Millenials and Gen-Z-ers are renting rather than buying at astonishing rates. That trend is expected to continue. And commercial apartments have held their values significantly better than any other real estate class through prior recessions. That’s not to say throw caution to the wind. No, don’t do that. But there is hardly ever a time when you can’t look back a few short years and say I wish I bought then.
And clearly the China trade war won’t continue. It is highly controllable by a few people at the top of our respective governments. So it’s subject to manipulation for political benefit. And it’s election season. It seems predictable how it will play out, even accounting for surprises. Think about who will benefit when the deal gets done. Agriculture? Tech? Aerospace? Who will get hurt in the U.S. – manufacturing? Will a trade deal encourage more off-shoring?
Are you seeing an end-of-year slowdown in purchase and sale activity? Certainly in single-family-homes the end of the year is usually slower because families don’t want to move during the holidays. But commercial real estate investments may be a different matter. Taxes drive decisions and opportunities dry up on January 1. Look for anxious sellers, stay close to your brokers. Good deals can appear unexpectedly.